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Which countries could be facing a recession in 2019?

Business · 3 min read

Countries at risk of recession: September 2019

While nothing is certain, ignoring the signs can be costly. Here are the countries that are indicating they could be under threat of recession in 2019.

Europe

Germany: The German economy shrank 0.1 percent in Q2, and the country is heavily reliant on its car manufacturing industry. With much of the world in the midst of a manufacturing recession, the German government has been reluctant to spend to stimulate growth.

United Kingdom: Growth shrunk by 0.2 percent in the second quarter, which – along with its manufacturing woes, and Brexit investment slump – is widely expected to trigger a recession.

Russia: Since 2014, Russia has found life difficult – due to falling oil prices and the sanctions placed on it after the military action in Ukraine. While it has also tried to build up its government cash reserves, it has left little money for stimulus, and China slowing down has had a knock-on effect.

Italy: The eurozone’s third-largest economy entered a recession in 2018, and 2019 hasn’t been much better. Concerns are high due to trade of goods to Germany, which is in worse shape, while Italy also struggles from continuing political crises that make additional economic aid from the government difficult.

Latin America

Mexico: Having barely escaped an official recession in the second quarter by growing just 0.1 percent, Mexico has also suffered declines in business investment and confidence as companies fear the President will nationalize industries.

Brazil: The largest economy in South America is widely expected to show consecutive quarters of negative growth when the official data comes out at the end of August. Having found difficulty in selling goods overseas, it has also experienced issues at home. Brazil’s central bank has cut interest rates, and the government is giving out cash payments to workers in an effort to stimulate growth.

Argentina: On one day in August, Argentina’s stock market dropped nearly 50 percent – the second largest one-day crash any nation has experienced since 1950. The country is experiencing rapid inflation, and its President was defeated in the nation’s primary elections. Investors fear Argentina won’t be able to repay its debts, and middle-class Argentines are fearful they won’t be able to afford everyday products as the value of the Argentine peso keeps dropping.

Asia

Singapore: The Asian nation reported Tuesday that its economy contracted 3.3 percent in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from over 3 percent growth in the first quarter. Singapore blamed the U.S.-China trade war for its problems, as its economy is heavily reliant on exports. Many economists watch Singapore and South Korea as strong indicators for what’s ahead for the global economy because these nations trade with so many others, especially China and the United States.

South Korea: Japan and South Korea are in the midst of a trade war that is expected to drag down growth and make it harder for South Korea to sell electronics and cars abroad. The South Korean central bank has reduced interest rates, but it’s unclear if that will be enough. Electronics exports are down about 20 percent and semiconductor exports are down more than 30 percent, according to ING.

On top of this, there are concerns that Australia could slip into a recession. With interest rates at a record low, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has put the nation’s chances at “One in three” – but he has a plan to prevent it, suggesting that the nation undertakes significant reforms, increases government spending, and steps up on the global stage.

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